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April 2019 First Crack in the Bull Market, but Don’t Get Fooled Again By Matt Topley “Won’t Get Fooled Again” I'll tip my hat to the new constitution Take a bow for the new revolution And smile and grin at the change all around Pick up my guitar and play just like yesterday Then I'll get on my knees and pray We don't get fooled again, don't get fooled again, no no no no Yeah Meet the new boss Same as the old boss Songwriters: Pete Townsend Produced by: The Who 2 Key Takeaways Don’t get fooled again by rising interest rates doomsayers. •The yield curve just inverted for the first time since 2007—short term rates are nowhigher than long term rates.•There’s typically a 17-month lag between a yield curve inversion and the start of arecession.•The curve did not stay inverted very long further confusing outcomes.•Markets tend to perform well during the post-inversion lag period--but stockseventually draw down when the economy contracts.•Stick to your plan. Ignore the media. Buy when things a...